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Effective reproduction numbers are commonly overestimated early in a disease outbreak

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dc.contributor.authorMercer, Geoffry
dc.contributor.authorGlass, Kathryn
dc.contributor.authorBecker, Niels
dc.date.accessioned2015-12-10T22:23:17Z
dc.date.issued2011
dc.date.updated2016-02-24T11:08:38Z
dc.description.abstractReproduction numbers estimated from disease incidence data can give public health authorities valuable information about the progression and likely size of a disease outbreak. Here, we show that methods for estimating effective reproduction numbers commonly give overestimates early in an outbreak. This is due to many factors including the nature of outbreaks that are used for estimation, incorrectly accounting for imported cases and outbreaks arising in subpopulations with higher transmission rates. Awareness of this bias is necessary to correctly interpret estimates from early disease outbreak data.
dc.identifier.issn0277-6715
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/52713
dc.publisherJohn Wiley & Sons Inc
dc.sourceStatistics in Medicine
dc.subjectKeywords: 2009 H1N1 influenza; article; awareness; calculation; controlled study; disease transmission; effective reproduction number; epidemic; epidemiological data; health survey; mathematical model; population size; probability; systematic error; Basic Reproduct Bias; Importation; Influenza; Reproduction number
dc.titleEffective reproduction numbers are commonly overestimated early in a disease outbreak
dc.typeJournal article
local.bibliographicCitation.issue9
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage997
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage984
local.contributor.affiliationMercer, Geoffry, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU
local.contributor.affiliationGlass, Kathryn, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU
local.contributor.affiliationBecker, Niels, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU
local.contributor.authoruidMercer, Geoffry, u4694131
local.contributor.authoruidGlass, Kathryn, u4053649
local.contributor.authoruidBecker, Niels, u9707783
local.description.embargo2037-12-31
local.description.notesImported from ARIES
local.identifier.absfor111706 - Epidemiology
local.identifier.absseo970111 - Expanding Knowledge in the Medical and Health Sciences
local.identifier.ariespublicationu4468094xPUB253
local.identifier.citationvolume30
local.identifier.doi10.1002/sim.4174
local.identifier.scopusID2-s2.0-79953156903
local.identifier.thomsonID000289430200007
local.type.statusPublished Version

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