Effective reproduction numbers are commonly overestimated early in a disease outbreak
Date
2011
Authors
Mercer, Geoffry
Glass, Kathryn
Becker, Niels
Journal Title
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Publisher
John Wiley & Sons Inc
Abstract
Reproduction numbers estimated from disease incidence data can give public health authorities valuable information about the progression and likely size of a disease outbreak. Here, we show that methods for estimating effective reproduction numbers commonly give overestimates early in an outbreak. This is due to many factors including the nature of outbreaks that are used for estimation, incorrectly accounting for imported cases and outbreaks arising in subpopulations with higher transmission rates. Awareness of this bias is necessary to correctly interpret estimates from early disease outbreak data.
Description
Keywords
Keywords: 2009 H1N1 influenza; article; awareness; calculation; controlled study; disease transmission; effective reproduction number; epidemic; epidemiological data; health survey; mathematical model; population size; probability; systematic error; Basic Reproduct Bias; Importation; Influenza; Reproduction number
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Source
Statistics in Medicine
Type
Journal article
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Restricted until
2037-12-31