HIV prevalence and lifetime risk of dying of AIDS

Abstract

The paper examines the relationship between the lifetime risk of dying from AIDS and HIV prevalence, using a female stable population model in which the epidemic has stabilized. In addition to prevalence, lifetime risk is determined by various other factors, notably the level of mortality from causes other than AIDS, age at infection, and survival time between infection and death. Typically, the lifetime risk of dying from AIDS is between three and five times the HIV prevalence. Regression equations are developed for estimating lifetime risk from the prevalence and other parameters. The methods are applied to data for Kenya, and it is shown that the 1995 prevalence estimate of 7.5 per cent for the population aged 15 and over would be equivalent to a lifetime risk of about 30 per cent. Show more