Comparing Northern Territory Elections, 1974-2016: Independent Success in a Strong Two-Party System

Abstract

Electoral success of independents and minor parties is often interpreted as indicating a weakening of two-party systems of political competition. This paper, on all thirteen elections for the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly since 1974, observes that independents have enjoyed far more success than minor parties. It argues that independent success has reflected a continuing strong two-party system, not a weakening one. Six of ten successful independents in NTLA elections have been "splitters" from the Country Liberal Party in times of intra-party turmoil. Their subsequent electoral success as independents in divisions previously very safe for the CLP leads to development of a "lopsided seats" hypothesis; that independents succeed in electoral divisions where the two-party contest has become lopsided, with one major party attracting twice the votes of the other or more. Two successful "non-splitter" independents in the 2016 election also contested such divisions — one lopsided to the CLP and one to Labor. This latter successful independent ran with the support of a Yolgnu First Nation organisation, which re-opens questions in the literature about Aboriginal candidates and Aboriginal voters, including turnout levels. A jurisdiction-wide graphic technique of “proportionality profiling” is applied to all thirteen NTLA elections and contextualises the later division-level analysis.