Evaluation of measures to reduce international spread of SARS

Abstract

Mathematical models are used to quantify the effect of border control measures in reducing the international spread of SARS. Border screening is shown to play a relatively minor role in reducing disease spread. Assuming detection rates similar to those reported for arrival screening in Australia, screening can detect up to 10% (95% CI 3-23) of infected travellers, and reduce the probability of a large outbreak by up to 7% (95% CI 2-17). Rapid reductions in the time to diagnosis and effective facilities for the isolation of cases are essential to ensure that there will not be a large outbreak, and each week of delay in responding to imported infection approximately doubles the total number of cases. While the control response is being developed in a currently uninfected region, border screening can provide up to one week's additional time in which to improve methods for early isolation of cases.