Evaluation of measures to reduce international spread of SARS
Date
2006
Authors
Glass, Kathryn
Becker, Niels
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Publisher
Cambridge University Press
Abstract
Mathematical models are used to quantify the effect of border control measures in reducing the international spread of SARS. Border screening is shown to play a relatively minor role in reducing disease spread. Assuming detection rates similar to those reported for arrival screening in Australia, screening can detect up to 10% (95% CI 3-23) of infected travellers, and reduce the probability of a large outbreak by up to 7% (95% CI 2-17). Rapid reductions in the time to diagnosis and effective facilities for the isolation of cases are essential to ensure that there will not be a large outbreak, and each week of delay in responding to imported infection approximately doubles the total number of cases. While the control response is being developed in a currently uninfected region, border screening can provide up to one week's additional time in which to improve methods for early isolation of cases.
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Keywords
Keywords: article; Australia; disease transmission; early diagnosis; epidemic; health care facility; health care planning; human; infection control; mathematical analysis; mathematical model; patient care; probability; protective clothing; quantitative analysis; SA
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Source
Epidemiology and Infection
Type
Journal article
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Restricted until
2037-12-31
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