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The Delphic forward guidance puzzle in New Keynesian models

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dc.contributor.authorFujiwara, Ippei
dc.contributor.authorWaki, Yuichiro
dc.date.accessioned2023-09-14T04:33:33Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.date.updated2022-07-31T08:18:17Z
dc.description.abstractWhen the central bank has information that can help the private sector better predict the future, should it communicate such information to the public? In purely forward-looking New Keynesian models, such Delphic forward guidance unambiguously reduces ex ante welfare by increasing the variability of inflation and the output gap. We call this phenomenon the Delphic forward guidance puzzle. In more elaborate models with endogenous state variables, a combination of Delphic forward guidance and preemptive policy actions may improve welfare. However, full information revelation is generally not optimal and what information needs to be revealed is highly model-dependent.en_AU
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen_AU
dc.identifier.issn1094-2025en_AU
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/299528
dc.language.isoen_AUen_AU
dc.publisherElsevieren_AU
dc.rights© 2021 Elsevier Inc.en_AU
dc.sourceReview of Economic Dynamicsen_AU
dc.subjectNews shocken_AU
dc.subjectOptimal monetary policyen_AU
dc.subjectPrivate informationen_AU
dc.subjectBayesian persuasionen_AU
dc.subjectForward guidanceen_AU
dc.subjectNew Keynesian modelsen_AU
dc.titleThe Delphic forward guidance puzzle in New Keynesian modelsen_AU
dc.typeJournal articleen_AU
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage22en_AU
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage1en_AU
local.contributor.affiliationFujiwara, Ippei, College of Asia and the Pacific, ANUen_AU
local.contributor.affiliationWaki, Yuichiro, University of Queenslanden_AU
local.contributor.authoruidFujiwara, Ippei, u5060823en_AU
local.description.embargo2099-12-31
local.description.notesImported from ARIESen_AU
local.identifier.absfor380100 - Applied economicsen_AU
local.identifier.ariespublicationa383154xPUB24049en_AU
local.identifier.doi10.1016/j.red.2021.10.002en_AU
local.identifier.scopusID2-s2.0-85117328057
local.publisher.urlhttps://www.elsevier.com/en-auen_AU
local.type.statusPublished Versionen_AU

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