What Matters More, Perceived or Real Crime?

Abstract

Crime consistently penetrates public and political debate, where crime, either perceived or real, shapes one’s sense of security, safety and wellbeing. This matters, as the perceived versus real dilemma infuences policy decisions. But what matters most? Here the evidence is mixed with often highly inconsistent fndings. Against this background, and employing more recent and arguably more robust econometric models, we compare the efect of real crime and perceived crime on self-reported life satisfaction after controlling for the efect of victimisation. We also explore the heterogenous efects of real crime and perceived crime among diferent socioeconomic and demographic groups. Overall, our results, across all model specifcations, demonstrate that perceived crime always matters, while real crime only matters to those on high-incomes. We also fnd that females tend to be more sensitive to their perceptions, while living outside major cities does not have a signifcant efect. Our results support our belief that more should be done to reduce the misperceptions of crime. Further, public media coverage related to crime should be more objective and informative to avoid infating misperceptions and public distress.