Russia's economic prospects in the Asia Pacific region

Abstract

Russia has declared a priority interest in developing a strong economic relationship with the Asia Pacific Region. There has been considerable internal debate over the best strategic approach to such a relationship. While a policy victory has been won by a strategy focusing on the export into the region of manufactured goods and services, a resource-export strategy is still dominant in practice and funding. Here the prospects of each strategy are assessed. Regarding resource exports, hydrocarbons, copper and iron ore prospects are reviewed, but most detail is provided on the coal sector. That involves an account of infrastructure issues, including a major debate over the expansion of the BAM and TransSiberian railways. The analysis suggests that Russia will struggle both to revitalise the Russian Far East through manufacturing exports to the APR and to replace revenues earned through resource exports to the West through an economic ‘turn to the East’.