Electoral authoritarianism and democracy: A formal model of regime transitions

Date

2013

Authors

Miller, Michael

Journal Title

Journal ISSN

Volume Title

Publisher

Sage Publications Inc

Abstract

Building on the formal literature on democratization, this paper models a dictator's choice between closed authoritarianism, electoral authoritarianism, and democracy in the shadow of violent revolt. Under autocracy, the dictator controls policy but lacks information on the policy demands of citizens and thus the likelihood of popular revolt. Electoral authoritarianism enables the dictator to tie policy choice to an electoral signal from citizens, which may be advantageous even if elections make revolt more likely to succeed. Implications are drawn for how economic inequality, regime strength, and uncertainty predict regime type, policy concessions, and political violence. A key result is that electoral authoritarianism is chosen for middle values of inequality and uncertainty.

Description

Keywords

Keywords: autocracy; democratization; elections

Citation

Source

Journal of Theoretical Politics

Type

Journal article

Book Title

Entity type

Access Statement

License Rights

DOI

10.1177/0951629812460122

Restricted until

2037-12-31