Adjusting for change of status in international migration: Demographic implications

Abstract

The calculation of net immigration for the purpose of estimating the resident population in Australia is based on net permanent and long-term (12 months or more) movements into and out of the country. All international movements with duration of stay in Australia or travel abroad of less than 12 months (defined as short-term) are excluded. However, changes between short-term and long-term/permanent status can occur when people extend or shorten their stay or travel. Because net immigration is a significant component of Australia's population growth (accounting for 40-50 per cent of annual growth), adjusting for these changes in immigration status is thought to result in better estimates of net immigration and the resident population. The paper shows that adjusting for change of status can have a large impact on net immigration, particularly when the immigrant intake is small. Failure to adequately adjust for change of status can also lead to misleading conclusions about the relative contributions of net temporary and permanent movements to total net immigration. The effect on the resident population, however, is relatively small, being less than 1 per cent of the total population. The paper also addresses the question of how important it is for countries to adjust for change of migrant status in international migration statistics in the context of increasing international mobility.