Vietnam-China relations: Does Vietnam have a formula for China?

Abstract

Sino-Vietnamese relations have gone through multiple cycles of deterioration and normalisation. The geographical proximity of China and Vietnam and the long historical record of Chinese invasions and occupation, as well as the states’ current ideological-political affinity, similar development path, economic dependence, and ongoing maritime disputes all complicate this inherently asymmetrical relationship. Yet at the current juncture, among Southeast Asian countries, when it comes to facing up to China’s assertiveness in the region, Vietnam appears to be the most strategic country — perhaps next to Singapore — among Southeast Asian states. This paper argues that Vietnam possesses three key assets that give it some leverage: its experience in dealing with China’s aggression; its strategic position at the frontier of China’s southern boundaries; and diplomatic clout that could make China’s expansion efforts politically and strategically costly