Estimating the CDM market under the Marrakech Accords

dc.contributor.authorJotzo, Frank
dc.contributor.authorMichaelowa, Axel
dc.date.accessioned2015-12-13T22:25:41Z
dc.date.available2015-12-13T22:25:41Z
dc.date.issued2002
dc.date.updated2015-12-11T08:17:42Z
dc.description.abstractThe agreement on implementation of the Kyoto Protocol achieved at COP7 in Marrakech has important implications for investment in greenhouse gas emission reduction projects in developing countries through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). The required actual emission reductions for participating Annex B countries overall will be relatively small, as the United States do not intend to ratify the protocol and significant amounts of carbon sequestered in domestic sinks can be credited. In addition, the potential supply of surplus emission permits (hot air) from Russia and other economies in transition may be as high as total demand in the first commitment period. Thus, even under restraint of hot air sellers, CDM demand will be limited, and a low demand, low price carbon market scenario appears likely. The magnitude of the CDM will be influenced by a host of factors both on the demand and the supply-side. We analyse these using a quantitative model of the global carbon market, based on marginal abatement cost curves. Implementation and transaction costs, as well as baseline and additionality rules affect the CDM's share in the carbon market. Demand for the CDM is sensitive to changes in business-as-usual emissions growth in participating Annex B countries, and also to crediting for additional sinks. Permit supply from Russia and other economies in transition is possibly the most crucial factor in the carbon market.
dc.identifier.issn1469-3062
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/73366
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.sourceClimate Policy
dc.subjectKeywords: developing world; emission control; greenhouse gas; Kyoto Protocol; India Carbon market modeling; CDM supply and demand; Marrakech Accords
dc.titleEstimating the CDM market under the Marrakech Accords
dc.typeJournal article
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage196
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage179
local.contributor.affiliationJotzo, Frank, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU
local.contributor.affiliationMichaelowa, Axel, Hamburg Institute for International Economics
local.contributor.authoremailu3902640@anu.edu.au
local.contributor.authoruidJotzo, Frank, u3902640
local.description.notesImported from ARIES
local.description.refereedYes
local.identifier.absfor140205 - Environment and Resource Economics
local.identifier.absfor160505 - Economic Development Policy
local.identifier.absfor160507 - Environment Policy
local.identifier.ariespublicationMigratedxPub3660
local.identifier.citationvolume2
local.identifier.doi10.1016/S1469-3062(02)00035-9
local.identifier.scopusID2-s2.0-0036381884
local.identifier.uidSubmittedByMigrated
local.type.statusPublished Version

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