China's new economic and strategic uncertainties, and the security prospects

Abstract

This paper surveys the implementation of China's 'four modernisations' program during the past decade, when the country's leadership took advantage of a period of comparative stability and detente to develop a broader economic and technological base. It describes the achievements of the program so far and its problems, both internal difficulties resulting from local conditions and problems associated generally with international economic growth and competition. The paper points to tension between the requirements of Party bureaucratic control and the demands of modernisation for economic innovation and political liberalisation, discussing the events of May-July 1989 in these terms. It also points to a new and different economic future world-wide, with the tempo and scale of development posing increasing difficulty in information and investment control. Finally, the paper discusses changes in the strategic balance resulting from national and international economic developments, in particular the emerging role of China as a middle power between the USSR and the US.