False posteriors for the long-term growth determinants

Charemza, Wojciech W.; Strachan, Rodney; Zurawski, Piotr

Cultural advice

The Australian National University acknowledges, celebrates and pays our respects to the Ngunnawal and Ngambri people of the Canberra region and to all First Nations Australians on whose traditional lands we meet and work, and whose cultures are among the oldest continuing cultures in human history.

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples are advised that ANU Library collections may include images, names, voices, and other representations of deceased persons.

Material in the collection may contain terms, language or views that reflect the period in which the item was created and may be considered inappropriate today.

False posteriors for the long-term growth determinants

Date

2010

Authors

Charemza, Wojciech W.

Strachan, Rodney

Zurawski, Piotr

Publisher

Elsevier

Abstract

This paper shows: (1) bias may exist in Bayesian methods of selecting regressors; (2) the non-zero posterior inclusion probability of irrelevant regressors might affect the choice of regressors; and (3) how to compute the probability of falsely including