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Oil Price Shocks, Income, and Democracy

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dc.contributor.authorBrueckner, Markus
dc.contributor.authorCiccone, Antonio
dc.contributor.authorTesei, Andrea
dc.date.accessioned2018-11-29T22:53:19Z
dc.date.available2018-11-29T22:53:19Z
dc.date.issued2012
dc.date.updated2018-11-29T07:52:03Z
dc.description.abstractWe examine the effect of oil price fluctuations on democratic institutions over the 1960–2007 period. We also exploit the very persistent response of income to oil price fluctuations to study the effect of persistent (oil-price-driven) income shocks on democracy. Our results indicate that countries with greater net oil exports over GDP see improvements in democratic institutions following upturns in international oil prices. We estimate that a 1 percentage point increase in per capita GDP growth due to a positive oil price shock increases the Polity democracy score by around 0.2 percentage points on impact and by around 2 percentage points in the long run. The effect on the probability of a democratic transition is around 0.4 percentage points.
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen_AU
dc.identifier.issn0034-6535
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/152437
dc.publisherMIT Press
dc.sourceReview of Economics and Statistics
dc.titleOil Price Shocks, Income, and Democracy
dc.typeJournal article
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Accessen_AU
local.bibliographicCitation.issue2
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage399
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage389
local.contributor.affiliationBrueckner, Markus, College of Business and Economics, ANU
local.contributor.affiliationCiccone, Antonio, Universitat Pompeu Fabra-ICREA
local.contributor.affiliationTesei, Andrea, Queen Mary University of London
local.contributor.authoruidBrueckner, Markus, u1020078
local.description.notesImported from ARIES
local.identifier.absfor140202 - Economic Development and Growth
local.identifier.ariespublicationu5564265xPUB26
local.identifier.citationvolume94
local.identifier.thomsonID000303300500002
local.type.statusPublished Version

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