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The Future Aged: New Projections of Australia's Elderly Population

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dc.contributor.authorBooth, Heatheren_AU
dc.contributor.authorTickle, Leonieen_AU
dc.date.accessioned2003-11-07en_US
dc.date.accessioned2004-05-19T15:43:21Zen_US
dc.date.accessioned2011-01-05T08:36:02Z
dc.date.available2004-05-19T15:43:21Zen_US
dc.date.available2011-01-05T08:36:02Z
dc.date.created2003en_US
dc.date.updated2015-12-11T09:23:55Z
dc.description.abstractObjectives: To use new methodology to forecast mortality for use in projections of the elderly population of Australia and to compare them with official projections. Method: The Lee-Carter method is applied to data for Australian females and males for 1968–2000 to forecast mortality to 2031. These forecasts are used with standard population projection methods to produce projections of the elderly population. Results: By 2027, forecast life expectancy is 88.1 and 82.9 years for females and males, compared with official projections of 85.4 and 81.4 years. Over the period to 2031, the populations aged 65+ and 85+ are forecast to increase by factors of 2.3 and 3.4 respectively. Compared with official projections, the forecast elderly population is substantially larger and has higher old-age dependency ratios, higher proportions aged 85+ and lower sex ratios. Conclusion: Official projections underestimate the size of the future elderly population especially the female and oldest-old populations. This article will be published in the Australasian Journal on Ageing.en_AU
dc.format.extent12 pages
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen_US
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/octet-streamen_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/41503en_US
dc.language.isoen_AUen_US
dc.publisherCanberra, ACT: Demography and Sociology Program, Research School of Social Sciences, The Australian National Universityen_AU
dc.subjectageing
dc.subjectpopulation projections
dc.subjectmortality
dc.subjectforecasting
dc.subjectpopulation structure
dc.subjectAustralia
dc.titleThe Future Aged: New Projections of Australia's Elderly Population
dc.typeWorking/Technical Paper
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Accessen_AU
local.citationWorking Papers in Demography (Demography and Sociology Program, Research School of Social Sciences, The Australian National University): No. 90en_US
local.contributor.affiliationDemography & Sociology Program, Research School of Social Sciencesen_US
local.contributor.affiliationAustralian National Universityen_US
local.contributor.authoruidBooth, Heather, u9410731
local.description.refereednoen_US
local.identifier.absfor160305 - Population Trends and Policies
local.identifier.absfor160399 - Demography not elsewhere classified
local.identifier.ariespublicationMigratedxPub5112
local.identifier.citationyear2003en_US
local.identifier.eprintid2241en_US
local.rights.ispublishednoen_US
local.type.statusPublished Versionen_AU

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