Three Fertility Compromises and Two Transitions

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dc.contributor.authorCaldwell, John
dc.date.accessioned2015-12-10T22:27:15Z
dc.date.issued2008
dc.date.updated2015-12-09T09:39:18Z
dc.description.abstractDemographers and those concerned with population policy are increasingly focusing on the steep fertility declines that occurred in developed countries from the 1960s and the consequent widespread below-replacement fertility levels. The decline has been termed the Second Demographic Transition. This paper argues that the recent demographic change can best be understood and analyzed if we broaden the concept to include the first demographic transition, and the three demographically more settled periods preceding, separating, and following the two fertility transitions. These more settled periods or 'compromises' are examined to ascertain their nature and so to help predict the likely developments in the present or third compromise. It is argued that the third compromise has now extended for 20 years with little movement in fertility rates or other socioeconomic behavior which has been said to be associated with the second transition, and that this provides sufficient evidence for analysis. The approach has two key aspects. First, it is confined in Europe to countries that distinctly experienced the full five demographic periods, namely northwestern and central Europe. Second, the analysis gains strength by including non-European countries that progressed through all five stages, namely the English-speaking countries of overseas European settlement: USA, United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand.
dc.identifier.issn0167-5923
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/54115
dc.publisherKluwer Academic Publishers
dc.sourcePopulation Research and Policy Review
dc.subjectKeywords: demographic transition; fertility; population dynamics; population policy; Australasia; Australia; Eurasia; Europe; New Zealand; North America; United Kingdom; United States; Western Europe Below-replacement fertility; Demographic theory; Demographic transition; Population policy; Second demographic transition
dc.titleThree Fertility Compromises and Two Transitions
dc.typeJournal article
local.bibliographicCitation.issue4
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage446
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage427
local.contributor.affiliationCaldwell, John, College of Arts and Social Sciences, ANU
local.contributor.authoremailrepository.admin@anu.edu.au
local.contributor.authoruidCaldwell, John, u4045011
local.description.embargo2037-12-31
local.description.notesImported from ARIES
local.identifier.absfor160302 - Fertility
local.identifier.ariespublicationu9406909xPUB291
local.identifier.citationvolume27
local.identifier.doi10.1007/s11113-008-9071-z
local.identifier.scopusID2-s2.0-46749152234
local.identifier.thomsonID000257124700003
local.identifier.uidSubmittedByu9406909
local.type.statusPublished Version

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