Modelling manufactured exports: evidence for Asian newly industralised economies

Abstract

This paper examines the determinants of export growth for four of the Asian newly industrialising economies (NIEs): Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan. Using the framework of cointegration and error correction modelling, it is found that, in the case of Singapore, income effects, competitiveness (relative price effects) and exchange rate effects are the dominant sources of export growth while in Korea’s case, these same variables are less significant in explaining export growth. In the case of Taiwan, income effects and exchange rate effect are more dominant than relative price effects and domestic factors such as exchange rate, and export prices have more significantly affected export growth in Hong Kong. Overall, the most significant variable in explaining export growth in the NIEs is the exchange rate. The empirical evidence indicates that the J-curve does exist for these NIE exports. Show more