A provincial view of global imbalances: regional capital flows in China

Abstract

We model capital flows among Chinese provinces. A version of the present value model of the current account (PVMCA) with non-tradable goods and a savings wedge accounts for around 80% of the variation in inter-provincial capital flows over the 1986–2010 period. The PVMCA also allows us to identify the channels of external adjustment in capital flows at the province-level: variation in intertemporal prices (domestic and international interest rates, the provincial real exchange rate) and intertemporal variation in quantities (output, investment and government spending). We find that cross-province variation in the importance of these channels is correlated with the importance of private and state-owned enterprises and demographic factors. We discuss implications of our results for global imbalances in capital flows.