Russian coal in a changing climate: risks and opportunities for industry and government
Date
2022-08-19
Authors
Martus, Ellie
Fortescue, Stephen
Journal Title
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Volume Title
Publisher
Springer Netherlands
Abstract
As one of the world’s major coal-producing and exporting states, Russia is central to discussions on the future of the industry in the context of global climate change. This is a
question that has become particularly salient in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in
February 2022. Yet despite this, Russia remains understudied in the literature. As a result,
we know little about the extent to which Russia is likely to contribute to the alleviation
of coal-driven climate change or to its exacerbation. This analysis seeks to examine this
question from the perspective of the coal industry, by exploring whether and how Russia’s coal companies incorporate the vulnerabilities and risks around climate change into
their corporate presence and behaviour, and how this aligns with broader government policy on the coal industry. Drawing on a range of primary and secondary sources, including
corporate reporting, government documents, and media commentary, this analysis identifes two central narratives emerging from coal companies. The frst is focused on the risks
around climate change, primarily in relation to reputation, increased regulation, and access
to markets that a climate-driven global shift away from coal might entail. The second narrative acknowledges the potential opportunities around technology and ‘green coal’. Within
government, both the pro-coal and coal-sceptic lobby recognise the signifcance of climate change; however, it is used purely instrumentally in policy debates. The coal sceptics
employ climate to highlight risks around global reductions in coal demand but are unable
to challenge government support for the industry. Ultimately, our fndings suggest that both
company behaviour and government policy in Russia remain strongly pro-coal, and that it
will take a signifcant drop in global demand for that to change. We conclude that, before
the invasion of Ukraine, selling as much coal as possible was a greater government priority
than climate change policy, and the invasion is unlikely to shift the balance the other way
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Keywords
Russia, Coal, Climate change, Policy, Industry
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Source
Climatic Change
Type
Journal article
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Access Statement
Open Access
License Rights
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
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