Multistate projections of Australia's Indigenous population: interacting area group and identification status change

Abstract

In this paper, we develop a multistate projection model that allows the AustralianAboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (Indigenous) population to move between areaclassifications and Indigenous self-identification statuses. We combine data fromthe Australian Census Longitudinal Dataset and the 2011 census to estimate thetransitions between 2006 and 2011. This information is then included in a multistatepopulation projection model to illustrate the effects of migration and identificationchange over time in relation to natural increase (i.e., births-deaths). The results showhow patterns of identification change differ by both age and type of migration, andhow migration and identification change affect patterns of Indigenous populationchange across major cities, regional areas, and remote areas in Australia.