Venezuela's Democratic Decline and Brazil's Growing Geopolitical Headache

Abstract

This article argues that Brazil's ability to influence events during Venezuela's democratic decline has been severely constrained by a series of internal and external factors. Within Brazil, policy makers have had to grapple with restraints imposed by a tradition of staunchly advancing the norm of sovereignty. This is coupled with an approach to democratization that sees it as the result of internally driven, not externally imposed societal changes. Economic relations with Venezuela have also created a constraint on its neighbour's actions due to the large volume of goods and services imported from major Brazilian companies linked to the PT government. Finally, as long as the PT was in power these constraints were manageable because a sense of leftist solidarity allowed policy makers in Brasi�lia at least to get reliable access to their counterparts in Caracas. The 2016 impeachment of Dilma Rousseff obliterated these close contacts, which has left the Temer government with almost no avenues of influence to manage the looming humanitarian and security catastrophe on his Northern border. The result for Brazil is a massive geopolitical headache that shows little sign of abating.