Clinical predictors of survival in real world practice in stage IV melanoma

Abstract

Background and Aim While studies continually identify new clinical prognostic factors in stage IV melanoma, the introduction of targeted and immunotherapies have revolutionised the prognosis of advanced melanoma since 2011. The study aims to investigate the prognostic significance of past and newly identified clinical factors in a contemporary cohort.

Methods A retrospective analysis of The Canberra Hospital melanoma database identified 161 patients with Stage IV melanoma between 2011 and 2017. Survival was analysed by demographics and clinical factors with chi-square tests to determine significance. Logistic binary regression was performed to test the independence of the clinical factors on predicting the survival outcome.

Results Overall, the 3-month, 6-month, 9-month, and 12-month stage IV melanoma survival rate of our cohort was 79%, 67%, 55%, and 45%, respectively. Age, sex, and BRAF mutation status were found to have no impact on survival, whereas M1d category of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging (8th edition), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) >3, elevated serum LDH, more than three metastatic sites, brain metastases, poorer Eastern cooperative oncology group (ECOG) status were associated with poorer survival. Binary logistic regression test identified AJCC staging, NLR (cutoff score 3), LDH, and brain metastases as independent prognostic factors.

Conclusion Most clinical factors investigated in this study were found to have a statistically significant impact on survival, with AJCC (8th edition) staging M1a-M1d, NLR (cutoff score 3), LDH, and brain metastases identified as independent prognostic factors in stage IV melanoma from a contemporary cohort treated with targeted therapies and immunotherapies.