Land Use Indexed Mobility Changes' Impact on Urban Crimes in Metropolitan Cities

Date

2022

Authors

Li, Yijing
Sun, Ivan
Zhang, Yan
Wu, Yuying

Journal Title

Journal ISSN

Volume Title

Publisher

Technische Universiteit Delft/Delft University of Technology

Abstract

Social distancing and lockdown measures have been widely deployed in urban areas worldwide to restrict citizens’ movement to help contain the COVID-19 pandemic. This resulted in dramatic changes in people’s daily mobility, as well as the criminality and delinquency in cities. Drawing on crime data in London, Sydney, and New York in 2020, this study attempts the first oneyear “look back” on the impact of massive lockdowns on crime trends in the assistance of two classic criminological theories, routine activity, and general strain, as well as cutting-edge machine learning techniques on relating the community-level geodemographics, socio-economic profiles, and mobility changes to changes in crime. The research findings suggest a general crime reduction upon mobility changes during lockdowns among the metropolitan cities, but some city-featured prominent crime types had an eye-catching increase during the period. Holistic mobility change was found to be the most crime-influential factor rather than any fine-scaled residents’ geodemographic characteristics, echoing commonly offsite criminal behaviors rather than committing crimes locally; the data-driven evidence could be further utilised for city-wide crime prediction and prevention strategies towards post-pandemic recovery.

Description

Keywords

crime change, lockdown, mobility change, routine activity, land use

Citation

Source

TU Delft Open

Type

Conference paper

Book Title

Entity type

Access Statement

Open Access

License Rights

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

DOI

10.24404/615625fd16da130008eba1bf

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