Predicting the distribution of Australian frogs and their overlap with Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis under climate change

Abstract

Amphibians, with over 40% of assessed species listed as threatened, are disproportionately at risk in the global extinction crisis. Among the many factors implicated in the ongoing loss of amphibian biodiversity are climate change and the disease chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). These threats are of particular concern in Australia, where Bd has been implicated in the declines of at least 43 frog species, and climate change is emerging as an additional threat. We explore how climate change is likely to affect the distributions of Australian frog species and Bd to the year 2100, and how the spatial and climatic niche overlap between chytridiomycosis-declined frogs and Bd could shift.