Achieving population targets for Australia: an analysis of the options

Abstract

The authors argue that, if Australia is to achieve a stationary population (zero population growth) within one generation, there is only one feasible path: net migration should be between sixty and a hundred thousand a year while the total fertility rate should be between 1.65 and 1.8. If fertility is at the lower end of this range migration should be higher, and vice versa. This path would take the population to between 24 and 26 million by around 2037 and maintain it at this level. Their analysis shows that a lower stationary population of around 21 million could only achieved by higher fertility (2.06) and zero migration. In contrast, if fertility were to fall to 1.1, very high migration (around 400,000 p.a.) would be required to achieve a stationary population, and the size of that population would be much larger (around 50 million). They also argue that low fertility (around 1.65) and zero migration would provoke a trend towards a dramatic population decline which would be difficult to check or reverse.