When to start and when to stop: Effects of climate on breeding in a multi-brooded songbird

Abstract

Climate warming has been shown to affect the timing of the onset of breeding of many bird species across the world. However, for multi-brooded species, climate may also affect the timing of the end of the breeding season, and hence also its duration, and these effects may have consequences for fitness. We used 28 years of field data to investigate the links between climate, timing of breeding, and breeding success in a cooperatively breeding passerine, the superb fairy-wren (Malurus cyaneus). This multi-brooded species from southeastern Australia has a long breeding season and high variation in phenology between individuals. By applying a "sliding window" approach, we found that higher minimum temperatures in early spring resulted in an earlier start and a longer duration of breeding, whereas less rainfall and more heatwaves (days > 29°C) in late summer resulted in an earlier end and a shorter duration of breeding. Using a hurdle model analysis, we found that earlier start dates did not predict whether or not females produced any young in a season. However, for successful females who produced at least one young, earlier start dates were associated with higher numbers of young produced in a season. Earlier end dates were associated with a higher probability of producing at least one young, presumably because unsuccessful females kept trying when others had ceased. Despite larger scale trends in climate, climate variables in the windows relevant to this species' phenology did not change across years, and there were no temporal trends in phenology during our study period. Our results illustrate a scenario in which higher temperatures advanced both start and end dates of individuals' breeding seasons, but did not generate an overall temporal shift in breeding times. They also suggest that the complexity of selection pressures on breeding phenology in multi-brooded species may have been underestimated.