Rethinking intuition of accumulation

Abstract

We have created a hands-on, concrete learning activity to help people with no systems thinking training develop good mental models around the concept of accumulation. This paper takes up Sterman’s 2008 challenge to create new methods to develop intuitive systems thinking capabilities so that “people can discover, for themselves, the dynamics of accumulation and impact of policies.” Our case study is the Earth’s carbon cycle. Participants in our activity work as a group manipulate a concrete system through a series of prompts, which encourage focussed discussion and development of mental models. One experimental treatment had 75.9% of participants demonstrate a correct response to the problem and sound understanding of accumulation principles. This treatment also had 93.1% of participants drawing a trajectory of future anthropogenic carbon emissions that would see a reversal of its current growth trajectory and greatly exceed the current targets described in international agreements. We propose that this approach is useful for constructing intuition of accumulation principles, and has implications for educators wanting to improve their students’ thinking about fundamental systems principles.