East Asian export growth and prospects

Abstract

The paper addresses the question of whether deceleration in Asian exports is a permanent ground shift or a passing phase. It finds that the 1998 deceleration will not be permanent, rather it has been caused by the structural, cyclical and country-specific problems and subsequently exacerbated by the financial and currency crisis. With time, and as financial sector restructuring, structural adjustments and skills development proceed, Asian export growth is likely to resume. As for growth rates, those achieved during the initial stages of export expansion in Asian economies are unlikely to be repeated. However, to restore competitiveness, East Asian economies require new strategies. A number of these are discussed in the last section of the paper.