Vague Credence
dc.contributor.author | Lyon, Aidan | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2016-02-24T22:40:34Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2015 | |
dc.date.updated | 2016-02-24T08:06:39Z | |
dc.description.abstract | It is natural to think of precise probabilities as being special cases of imprecise probabilities, the special case being when one’s lower and upper probabilities are equal. I argue, however, that it is better to think of the two models as representing two different aspects of our credences, which are often (if not always) vague to some degree. I show that by combining the two models into one model, and understanding that model as a model of vague credence, a natural interpretation arises that suggests a hypothesis concerning how we can improve the accuracy of aggregate credences. I present empirical results in support of this hypothesis. I also discuss how this modeling interpretation of imprecise probabilities bears upon a philosophical objection that has been raised against them, the so-called inductive learning problem. | |
dc.identifier.issn | 0039-7857 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/1885/98369 | |
dc.provenance | Journal: Synthese (ISSN: 0039-7857, ESSN: 1573-0964) RoMEO: This is a RoMEO green journal Paid OA: A paid open access option is available for this journal. Author's Pre-print: green tick author can archive pre-print (ie pre-refereeing) Author's Post-print: green tick author can archive post-print (ie final draft post-refereeing) Publisher's Version/PDF: cross author cannot archive publisher's version/PDF | |
dc.publisher | Springer International Publishing AG | |
dc.source | Synthese | |
dc.title | Vague Credence | |
dc.type | Journal article | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Lyon, Aidan, College of Arts and Social Sciences, ANU | |
local.contributor.authoremail | repository.admin@anu.edu.au | |
local.contributor.authoruid | Lyon, Aidan, u4281198 | |
local.description.embargo | 2037-12-31 | |
local.description.notes | Imported from ARIES | |
local.identifier.absfor | 080104 - Computer Vision | |
local.identifier.ariespublication | a383154xPUB2645 | |
local.identifier.ariespublication | u4485658xPUB1015 | |
local.identifier.citationvolume | Published online: 5 July 2015 | |
local.identifier.doi | 10.1007/s11229-015-0782-5 | |
local.identifier.scopusID | 2-s2.0-84935106919 | |
local.identifier.uidSubmittedBy | a383154 | |
local.type.status | Published Version |
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