Hydroclimatic projections for the Murray-Darling Basin based on an ensemble derived from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 climate models

dc.contributor.authorSun, Fubao
dc.contributor.authorRoderick, Michael
dc.contributor.authorLim, Wee Ho
dc.contributor.authorFarquhar, Graham
dc.date.accessioned2015-12-08T22:46:27Z
dc.date.issued2011
dc.date.updated2016-02-24T10:48:34Z
dc.description.abstractWe assess hydroclimatic projections for the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) using an ensemble of 39 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 climate model runs based on the A1B emissions scenario. The raw model output for precipitation, P, was adjusted using a quantile-based bias correction approach. We found that the projected change, ΔP, between two 30 year periods (2070-2099 less 1970-1999) was little affected by bias correction. The range for ΔP among models was large (∼±150 mm yr-1) with all-model run and all-model ensemble averages (4.9 and -8.1 mm yr-1) near zero, against a background climatological P of ∼500 mm yr-1. We found that the time series of actually observed annual P over the MDB was indistinguishable from that generated by a purely random process. Importantly, nearly all the model runs showed similar behavior. We used these facts to develop a new approach to understanding variability in projections of ΔP. By plotting ΔP versus the variance of the time series, we could easily identify model runs with projections for ΔP that were beyond the bounds expected from purely random variations. For the MDB, we anticipate that a purely random process could lead to differences of ±57 mm yr-1 (95% confidence) between successive 30 year periods. This is equivalent to ±11% of the climatological P and translates into variations in runoff of around ±29%. This sets a baseline for gauging modeled and/or observed changes.
dc.identifier.issn0043-1397
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/38156
dc.publisherAmerican Geophysical Union
dc.rightsAuthor/s retain copyrighten_AU
dc.sourceWater Resources Research
dc.subjectKeywords: Bias correction; Emissions scenarios; Ensemble averages; Hydroclimatic; Intergovernmental panel on climate changes; Model outputs; Murray-Darling Basin; New approaches; Random variation; Climate change; Random processes; Time series; Climate models; basel
dc.titleHydroclimatic projections for the Murray-Darling Basin based on an ensemble derived from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 climate models
dc.typeJournal article
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Accessen_AU
local.bibliographicCitation.issue4
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage14
local.bibliographicCitation.startpageW00G02
local.contributor.affiliationSun, Fubao, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU
local.contributor.affiliationRoderick, Michael, College of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, ANU
local.contributor.affiliationLim, Wee Ho, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU
local.contributor.affiliationFarquhar, Graham, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU
local.contributor.authoremailu9613353@anu.edu.au
local.contributor.authoruidSun, Fubao, u4726055
local.contributor.authoruidRoderick, Michael, u9613353
local.contributor.authoruidLim, Wee Ho, u4462343
local.contributor.authoruidFarquhar, Graham, u7601091
local.description.notesImported from ARIES
local.identifier.absfor040608 - Surfacewater Hydrology
local.identifier.absseo960307 - Effects of Climate Change and Variability on Australia (excl. Social Impacts)
local.identifier.ariespublicationu4278572xPUB158
local.identifier.citationvolume47
local.identifier.doi10.1029/2010WR009829
local.identifier.scopusID2-s2.0-79953813578
local.identifier.thomsonID000289087600002
local.identifier.uidSubmittedByu4278572
local.type.statusPublished Version

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