Using an integrated fuzzy set and deliberative multi-criteria evaluation approach to facilitate decision-making in invasive species management

Abstract

There are two issues at the core of invasive species risk management: on the one hand, decision-makers struggle to balance environmental goals against other often competing societal goals such as economic benefits and social welfare; on the other hand, uncertainty often prevails in understanding the invasion process and in communicating invasion risks to the stakeholders. In this paper, we describe how an integrated Deliberative Multi-Criteria Evaluation (DMCE) and fuzzy set approach can tackle these two issues in the analysis of alternative risk management strategies, using the example of European House Borer (EHB, Hylotrupes bajulus Linnaeus). DMCE offers a platform for stakeholders to interact and to make a trade-off decision between multiple goals based on social learning and deliberation. The fuzzy set approach, applied within a DMCE framework, explicitly incorporates the inherent uncertainty in estimating potential EHB impacts and in evaluating participants' subjective preferences. This integrated method, therefore, provides a promising approach for tackling the dual challenges of competing goals and uncertainty in the evaluation of invasive species risk management options.