Investigating observed northwest Australian rainfall trends in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 detection and attribution experiments

Abstract

Mean and extreme northwest Australian (NWA) summertime rainfall has increased significantly since 1950. While previous studies have explored a range of possible factors impacting NWA rainfall, the causes of this increase and possible future changes remain uncertain. This study explores the increasing NWA summertime rainfall trends in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models. By using a suite of models that contributed realizations of the historical period with various forcings, we explore the impact to this region of greenhouse gases and aerosol emissions since 1950 on mean rainfall and three extreme rainfall indices. The observed NWA rainfall trend is better captured in models when all forcings are included compared to simulations with only greenhouse gas forcing or with only natural forcing, although the models have a large spread. We hypothesise that anthropogenic aerosols played a major role in the observed rainfall trends, and the associated increase in monsoonal flow, and hence historicalNat and historicalGHG simulations tend not to capture observed rainfall trend. Throughout the 21st century, CMIP5 models simulate a stronger increase in mean summer precipitation and extreme indices of NWA rainfall in representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 simulations than in RCP2.6. The NWA region shows intensified extreme events with fewer heavy precipitation days, but the reliability of these projections in this region should be further tested with estimates of future anthropogenic aerosol changes.