Quantitative Foresighting as a Means of Improving Anticipatory Scientific Capacity and Strategic Planning

Abstract

In a rapidly changing world, scientists and research institutions need to plan for the infrastructure, skills, and policy engagement that will help society navigate social-ecological challenges. Foresighting draws on approaches used in strategic and long-range (>10 years) planning and participatory futures studies. Here, we describe a new quantitative approach to develop and rank 14 foresight scenarios across a range of general and marine-relevant science domains. Indicators for each foresight were used to assess the time-specific probability of each scenario being realized. Assessments by scientists in 2 consecutive years showed foresight scoring consistency and revealed surprises. Despite high variation among scientists in scoring the year that each indicator would occur, there was overall consistency across the foresights between years. We show that foresighting can be quantitative and that individual performance and changes in likelihood can be evaluated. This approach can motivate and guide strategic planning and investment decisions by scientific institutions in response to different anticipated futures and build skills in futures thinking. Show more