Does China matter? The global economic issues

Abstract

In 1999, Gerry Segal, then Director of Research at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, wrote an article in Foreign Affairs entitled Does China matter?. His article ranged across economic, political and strategic issues but his overall conclusion was that Chinas importance had been greatly exaggerated. As far as economic questions were concerned, Segal saw China as a small market that matters little to the world, especially outside Asia. This paper argues that while Segal was correct in the view that there had been considerable exaggeration of Chinas economic weight, mostly outside of China, his generalisation now needs qualification. The paper considers the standard economic comparisons across countries such as GDP, trade and investment volumes and other areas of Chinas growing global economic involvement. It also deals with issues such as the accuracy of Chinas growth statistics. It concludes with the idea that China does now matter to the world both for its substance and for its evident potential.