Empirical investigation into the effect of nuptiality and fertility variables on the convergence and duration of stability of age-sex distribution of Singapore's population

Abstract

The stable population is a tool that displays the implications for age composition, and the growth rates of specified schedules of mortality and fertility on the assumption that the schedules prevail long enough for other influences to be erased. In this study, the process of convergence from arbitrary circumstances to the stable form is analysed by using Singapore's populations - 1957 observed, 1957 stable and 1970 observed populations - with 1969-71 mortality incorporating nuptiality and fertility as separate inputs. The first part of the study, drawing on experience of the Singapore 1970 situation, Sweden 1875 and Japan 1960 situations, derives the hypothetical data for nuptiality and fertility schedules. The second part of the study demonstrates the effect of nuptiality and fertility variables on the duration of convergence, which shows that nuptiality can have more effect on the duration of convergence than fertility although this is more pronounced in the shorter term, i.e. transition spread over 35 years, than in the longer term, i.e. transition spread over 65 years. Finally, the process of convergence is analysed in terms of the actual population change during the projection period. Show more