Bounding tail probabilities in dynamic economic models

Stachurski, John

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Bounding tail probabilities in dynamic economic models

Date

2012

Authors

Stachurski, John

Publisher

Cambridge University Press

Abstract

This paper provides conditions for bounding tail probabilities in stochastic economic models in terms of their transition laws and shock distributions. Particular attention is given to conditions under which the tails of stationary equilibria have exponential decay. By way of illustration, the technique is applied to a threshold autoregression model of exchange rates.