FARM: A Global Framework for Integrated Land Use/Cover Modeling

Abstract

The Future Agricultural Resources Model (FARM) was developed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service (ERS) to evaluate effects of global changes on agricultural systems. The model uses a geographic information system that links climatically defined land and water resources with production possibilities in 12 regions, and an economic model that simulates how changes in one region can affect land and water resources as well as production and consumption of 13 aggregate commodities in eight regions. Analyses carried out with FARM show that: 1) global climate change and population growth are likely to place additional stress on current agricultural and environmental systems during the 21st century; 2) the net economic effects of global climate change may be positive but realization of these benefits may increase environmental stresses; 3) deregulation of trade in agricultural commodities may help to alleviate some of the economic pressure generated by population growth and global climate change and 4) setting land aside from economic production to protect natural ecosystems may have relatively low opportunity costs, but global climate change will make it more difficult to implement such programs. Show more