Measurement of adult mortality in populations affected by AIDS: an assessment of the orphanhood method

Abstract

This paper demonstrates that orphanhood data can be used to estimate adult women’s mortality in populations experiencing an epidemic of AIDS. It develops both a correction for selection bias in reports of orphanhood and a revised procedure for estimating life table survivorship for use in populations with significant AIDS mortality. These new methods yield mortality estimates for a Ugandan population that are consistent with those obtained by prospective surveillance. Countries that lack effective death registration systems should ask about the survival of mothers in the census and surveys in order to monitor the effect of the AIDS epidemic on mortality.