Citizen Forecasts of the 2008 U.S.Presidential Election

Miller, Michael; Wang, Guanchun; Kulkarni, Sanjeev R; Poor, H. Vincent; Osherson, Daniel N

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Citizen Forecasts of the 2008 U.S.Presidential Election

Date

2012

Authors

Miller, Michael

Wang, Guanchun

Kulkarni, Sanjeev R

Poor, H. Vincent

Osherson, Daniel N

Publisher

Wiley-Blackwell

Abstract

We analyze individual probabilistic predictions of state outcomes in the 2008 U.S. presidential election. Employing an original survey of more than 19,000 respondents, we find that partisans gave higher probabilities to their favored candidates, but this