Category jumping: trends, demographic impact and meaurement issues

Abstract

The net overseas migration component used to estimate the resident population is based on net permanent and long-term (12 months or more) movements into and out of Australia. From July 1976 onwards, net overseas migration has included an adjustment for category jumping. Because of current concerns with the volatility of category jumping estimates and its impact on net overseas migration and population estimates, this study was undertaken to: * Examine the reasons for the recent volatility in estimates of category jumping and the discrepancies between preliminary and revised estimates; * Examine which types of overseas arrivals and departures are included in estimates of category jumping and whether there is the possibility of under- or overcounting; * Examine the feasibility and usefulness of calculating category jumping by visa category, purpose of travel and other relevant factors; * Examine the impact of category jumping estimates on net overseas migration, the population growth rate and population estimates, and assumptions underlying short-term and long-term population projections; and * Examine the options for reducing category jumping, whether through improvements in the methodology or program planning, and evaluate the feasibility of these options. The study also investigates the approaches used in other countries similar to Australia to estimate net overseas migration, to see whether they can provide alternative ways of addressing the issue of category jumping. Category jumping is the term used to describe the net effect of changes in travel intention from short-term to permanent/long-term or vice versa. These changes occur when: * an Australian resident departing on a short-term (less than 12 month) visit overseas does not return within 12 months; * an Australian resident departing long-term (at least 12 months) or permanently returns after less than 12 months; * an overseas visitor arriving with an intention to stay less than 12 months does not depart within 12 months; and * an overseas visitor on arriving with an intention to stay at least 12 months or permanently departs after less than 12 months.