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Modelling water yields in response to logging and Representative Climate Futures

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dc.contributor.authorTaylor, Chris
dc.contributor.authorBlair, David
dc.contributor.authorKeith, Heather
dc.contributor.authorLindenmayer, David B
dc.date.accessioned2019-07-08T00:29:29Z
dc.date.issued2019-06-21
dc.description.abstractNatural and human disturbance and climate change pose major challenges for resource management. This is relevant in natural forests where conflict can occur between water provision and industrial logging where conversion of old forests to young, fast-growing stands can dramatically reduce streamflow and water yield. We modelled changes in stream run-off and hence water yield from a forest catchment in response to clearcut logging with projected climate change (using a Representative Climate Futures [RCFs] approach). We focused on the Thomson Catchment which is the largest single catchment for the city of Melbourne, south-eastern Australia. Within this catchment, we targeted our analysis at montane ash-type eucalypt forests, as these receive the most rainfall and are subject to clearcutting. We used several forest management scenarios to model changes in water yield over time. For our analysis of projected climate change, we employed a range of RCFs that represent ‘consensus’, ‘wettest’ and ‘driest’ scenarios to model the impacts of multiple Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Our initial spatial analysis revealed that 42% of the ash-type eucalypt forests in the Thomson Catchment have been logged. Under historical and continued logging, stream runoff decreases by 40,211 ML by 2090 compared with a hypothetical baseline if logging had ceased in 1995 and 34,059 ML if logging continues beyond 2019. These losses exceed the projected impacts of climate change under the consensus and wettest scenarios, but the driest scenarios are projected to exceed these losses, consisting of 49,998 ML and 69,474 ML for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. We suggest native forest logging be excluded from the Thomson Catchment because of decreasing stream flows due to climate change and an increasing water demand due to human population growth. This study provides a quantitative approach for highlighting how resource conflicts can be magnified under climate change.en_AU
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen_AU
dc.identifier.citationTaylor, C., Blair, D., Keith, H., and Lindenmayer, D.B. (2019). Modelling water yields in response to logging and Representative Climate Futures. Science of the Total Environment, 688, 890-902.en_AU
dc.identifier.issn0048-9697en_AU
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/164352
dc.language.isoen_AUen_AU
dc.publisherElsevieren_AU
dc.rights© 2019 Elsevier B.V.en_AU
dc.sourceScience of The Total Environmenten_AU
dc.subjectClimate changeen_AU
dc.subjectclearcuttingen_AU
dc.subjectforest policyen_AU
dc.subjectwatershedsen_AU
dc.subjectresource conflicten_AU
dc.subjectSouth-Eastern Australiaen_AU
dc.subjectmontane ash foresten_AU
dc.titleModelling water yields in response to logging and Representative Climate Futuresen_AU
dc.typeJournal articleen_AU
dcterms.dateAccepted2019-06-19
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage902en_AU
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage890en_AU
local.contributor.affiliationTaylor, Chris, Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National Universityen_AU
local.contributor.affiliationBlair, David, Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National Universityen_AU
local.contributor.affiliationKeith, Heather, Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National Universityen_AU
local.contributor.affiliationLindenmayer, David, Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National Universityen_AU
local.contributor.authoremaildavid.lindenmayer@anu.edu.auen_AU
local.contributor.authoruidBlair, David, u3514977en_AU
local.contributor.authoruidKeith, Heather, u3690676en_AU
local.contributor.authoruidLindenmayer, David,u8808483en_AU
local.identifier.ariespublicationu3102795xPUB4502
local.identifier.citationvolume688en_AU
local.identifier.doi10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.298en_AU
local.identifier.uidSubmittedByu4911160en_AU
local.publisher.urlhttps://www.sciencedirect.comen_AU
local.type.statusAccepted Versionen_AU

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