The impact of immigration on the ageing of Australia's population

Abstract

In 1998, just over 12 per cent of Australia’s population were aged 65 years and over. Population projections indicate that this percentage is likely to at least double in the next 40 years. This trend has given rise to concerns about the capacity of our economy in the future to support the older members of our society. In particular, an older population implies increased costs for aged pensions and health and aged care services. As part of the response to this future situation, it has been suggested that we should reduce the extent or speed of ageing through changes to immigration policy. The argument is that, as immigrants are younger on average than the Australian population, an increase in the level of immigration would reduce the ageing of the population. To strengthen the case, it has also been suggested that the immigration program should recruit persons who are younger than the immigrants that enter Australia now. The call is for more and younger immigrants who have skill levels at least equal to those of immigrants at present. In addition, proponents of this position sometimes claim that immigrants have higher fertility than the Australian average, so that higher immigration would increase Australia’s birth rate and, hence, reduce ageing of the population. The counter argument is that immigration makes only a marginal difference to the ageing of the population because, in the longer term, immigrants themselves grow old. Larger immigration leads to larger numbers of older people, with little impact on population age structure. In other words, immigration is an inefficient response to the ageing of the population and a belief in immigration as a solution may draw our attention away from the social and economic reforms necessary as we face an ageing future. In addition, proponents of this position sometimes argue that, rather than importing high fertility immigrants, there is a need to support childbearing and childrearing in Australia so that our fertility rate stops falling. Public debate about these two points of view has waxed and waned over the past 15 years, rising again in the past 12 months. The aim of this report is to examine the validity of the propositions that underpin these arguments. Show more