Offshore wind power in the Asia-Pacific: Expert elicitation on costs and policies

Abstract

Offshore wind power is an important technology option for decarbonising the electricity sector. An emerging region for the deployment of offshore wind is the Asia-Pacific. We conduct an expert elicitation of future cost expectations for offshore wind in the Asia-Pacific region, covering fixed-bottom and floating offshore wind technologies. We also examine views on policies that support the more rapid cost reductions for fixed bottom and floating offshore wind. We find expectations of decreases in the average levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) to USD72/MWh in 2040 (fixed-bottom) and USD81/MWh in 2050 (floating). The largest factors contributing to falling technology costs are identified as installation costs and capital costs for turbines and foundations, along with increased capacity factors. The creation of policy targets along with improved regulatory streamlining are identified as important policy measures that governments could implement to support technology cost reductions. We also find that preferred policy mixes depend on the level of technological maturity. Competitive tendering processes are identified as important for both technologies, but floating offshore wind auctions should be introduced after technology costs have fallen. In the near term, other policies are identified as more important for floating offshore technologies.