Recent surprises and changes in Australian demography

Abstract

This paper is a follow-up to "Australian Demography at the Millenium" (Lucas 1994) that appeared in the Tenth Anniversary issue of the Journal of the Australian Population. The current paper largely looks backward into the 1990s, and, on occasions, forward for a varying number of years. Apart from looking at changes, surprises will be sought out. McNicoll (1992:411) referred to "surprise-free forecasts of demographic change'" that "assume no interference with the smooth working out of the demographic transition" and end with, "high consumption, low mortality, and near-replacement level fertility." In contrast, Jones (1993:1) referred to "a retreat from diversity in human experience." Those familiar with the textbook Beginning Population Studies (Lucas and Meyer 1994) will realize that the headings below are related to the structure of that book. It is hoped that the discussion of the current paper will contribute to the development of the online Beginning Australian Population Studies two chapters of which are available on the Web at http://demography.anu.edu.au/Publications/Books/BAPS.html