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A simple empirical model of equity-implied probabilities of default

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Altman, Edward
Fargher, Neil
Kalotay, Egon

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Institutional Investor, Journals

Abstract

Practitioners and academics have exploited the theoretical restrictions developed in Merton [1974] to predict distress based on the risk-neutral probability of default inferred from equity prices. Recent empirical studies such as Hillegeist, Keating, Cram, and Lundstedt [2004], and Bharath and Shumway [2008] have advocated the value of the approach relative to widely used alternatives.

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Journal of Fixed Income

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2037-12-31
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