Skip navigation
Skip navigation

What measure of temperature is the best predictor of mortality?

Barnett, Adrian; Tong, S; Clements, Archie

Description

Hot and cold temperatures significantly increase mortality rates around the world, but which measure of temperature is the best predictor of mortality is not known. We used mortality data from 107 US cities for the years 1987-2000 and examined the association between temperature and mortality using Poisson regression and modelled a non-linear temperature effect and a non-linear lag structure. We examined mean, minimum and maximum temperature with and without humidity, and apparent temperature...[Show more]

dc.contributor.authorBarnett, Adrian
dc.contributor.authorTong, S
dc.contributor.authorClements, Archie
dc.date.accessioned2015-12-13T22:28:56Z
dc.identifier.issn0013-9351
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/74439
dc.description.abstractHot and cold temperatures significantly increase mortality rates around the world, but which measure of temperature is the best predictor of mortality is not known. We used mortality data from 107 US cities for the years 1987-2000 and examined the association between temperature and mortality using Poisson regression and modelled a non-linear temperature effect and a non-linear lag structure. We examined mean, minimum and maximum temperature with and without humidity, and apparent temperature and the Humidex. The best measure was defined as that with the minimum cross-validated residual. We found large differences in the best temperature measure between age groups, seasons and cities, and there was no one temperature measure that was superior to the others. The strong correlation between different measures of temperature means that, on average, they have the same predictive ability. The best temperature measure for new studies can be chosen based on practical concerns, such as choosing the measure with the least amount of missing data.
dc.publisherAcademic Press
dc.sourceEnvironmental Research
dc.subjectKeywords: age structure; climate effect; correlation; mortality; Poisson ratio; spatiotemporal analysis; temperature effect; article; correlation analysis; groups by age; human; humidity; mortality; Poisson distribution; predictor variable; priority journal; season Apparent temperature; Climate; Humidex; Mortality; Temperature; Weather
dc.titleWhat measure of temperature is the best predictor of mortality?
dc.typeJournal article
local.description.notesImported from ARIES
local.identifier.citationvolume110
dc.date.issued2010
local.identifier.absfor111706 - Epidemiology
local.identifier.absfor111799 - Public Health and Health Services not elsewhere classified
local.identifier.ariespublicationU3488905xPUB4124
local.type.statusPublished Version
local.contributor.affiliationBarnett, Adrian, Queensland University of Technology
local.contributor.affiliationTong, S, Queensland University of Technology
local.contributor.affiliationClements, Archie, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU
local.description.embargo2037-12-31
local.bibliographicCitation.issue6
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage604
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage611
local.identifier.doi10.1016/j.envres.2010.05.006
local.identifier.absseo920499 - Public Health (excl. Specific Population Health) not elsewhere classified
dc.date.updated2016-02-24T10:05:37Z
local.identifier.scopusID2-s2.0-77954957067
CollectionsANU Research Publications

Download

File Description SizeFormat Image
01_Barnett_What_measure_of_temperature_is_2010.pdf257.84 kBAdobe PDF    Request a copy


Items in Open Research are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.

Updated:  19 May 2020/ Responsible Officer:  University Librarian/ Page Contact:  Library Systems & Web Coordinator