The Patron's Dilemma: The Dynamics of Foreign-Supported Democratization
Date
2012
Authors
McKoy, Michael K
Miller, Michael
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Sage Publications Inc
Abstract
We analyze an understudied mode of democratization in which the acquiescence of an autocratic regime's foreign ally, or patron, is pivotal to the success of a democratic movement. Although a democratic patron may prefer having democracy in its dependent allies, regime change threatens the economic and security benefits associated with the alliance. We formalize this dilemma through a repeated principal-agent model and demonstrate that the critical dimension is the patron's beliefs about the potential democracy's policies rather than its value for democracy or the alliance goods. Patron support hinges on democratic movement signaling of its capacity to rule, popular support, and commitment to preserving the alliance. To test our theory, we analyze twenty-five democratic openings in American cold war clients, followed by case studies of US-aided democratization episodes in the Philippines and South Korea. We conclude with an analysis of the recent Egyptian revolution.
Description
Keywords
Keywords: democratic movements; democratization; foreign policy
Citation
Collections
Source
Journal of Conflict Resolution
Type
Journal article
Book Title
Entity type
Access Statement
License Rights
Restricted until
2037-12-31
Downloads
File
Description