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The interpretation of IPCC probabilistic statements around the world

Budescu, David; Por, Han-Hui; Broomell, Stephen B; Smithson, Michael


The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) uses verbal descriptions of uncertainty (for example, Unlikely) to convey imprecision in its forecasts and conclusions. Previous studies showed that the American public misinterprets these probabilistic statements. We report results from a multi-national study involving 25 samples in 24 countries and 17 languages. As predicted, laypeople interpret IPCC statements as conveying probabilities closer to 50% than intended by the IPCC authors. We...[Show more]

CollectionsANU Research Publications
Date published: 2014
Type: Journal article
Source: Nature Climate Change
DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2194


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